The Swing State Project is moving its rating of the race for Pennsylvania’s 11th District from “Lean Democratic” to “Tossup“.
A number of factors contribute to our decision here, not the least of which were three consecutive polls showing Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski trailing Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta. The DCCC released a poll of their own showing Kanjorski leading, but only with 48% of the vote — under the 50% bubble of vulnerability for an incumbent.
Barletta challenged Kanjorski in 2002 — not a great year for Democrats — and lost by a 56-42 margin. While it’s easy to dismiss Barletta out of hand because of that loss, it’s clear that in the interim years, Barletta has built a stronger profile, while Kanjorski has mired himself in controversy and gaffes. First there was the $10 million in earmarks that Kanjorski delivered to a failed anthracite technology company that was run by his relatives, then some inartful comments about the Iraq War that the GOP seized upon, and most recently, a disastrously bumbling interview with CBS on the subject of a controversial $5.6 million earmark to build a parking garage for a vacant office building (the “Kanjorski Center”) in his hometown of Nanticoke.
For his part, Barletta built a profile as a populist, anti-immigration crusader as mayor of Hazleton — an issue with some currency in this culturally conservative, working-class district. He has continued a populist theme on the campaign trail, hammering Kanjorski for spending campaign cash on limousine services “while hardworking district residents suffer.”
Money is the least of Kanjorski’s problems. He held a $2.2 million to $322K cash-on-hand advantage over Barletta, and has been saturating the airwaves since the early summer with ads. The DCCC and the National Association of Realtors continue to spend heavily in his defense, as well — but we can take this as an indication of something seriously wrong for an incumbent with such a wide financial advantage.
The word that’s been most often used to describe Kanjorski’s campaign skills is “rusty”. Well, we’re not really seeing the rust shaking off. This is one of the few districts where a Republican is beating the change drum and seeing some measure of success.
that Obama is not the ideal Democrat to have at the top of the ticket in this district.
Definitely a toss-up at this point. Kanjorski needs to get serious. If I were him I would spend everyday until the election on the street knocking on doors and generally socializing with people. Forget all the media expenditures, Kanjorski needs a better ground game. D-trip and NARPAC got the media covered.
So don’t expect me to be crying foul if Kanjorski loses. And besides, Kanjorski’s loss would more than be made up for by the dozens of seats the Dems will pick up.
What are the numbers for a McCain-Obama matchup in this district?
-Kanjorski’s cash advantage & incumbency
-The Republican legislature: which added the heavily Democratic Scranton to the 11th to protect Don Sherwood (alot of good it did him in ’06)
My call: we hold this seat with tooth and nail, but it is fair to call this tossup
This will be a controversial comment, but I hope a Barletta victory helps convince the Dems to seek an alternative course than trying to ram last year’s wildly unpopular “comprehensive immigration reform” bill down the throats of the public. If a President Obama and a Democratic Congress engineer that into law next spring, we’ll already be hearing the bells chiming for the “emerging Republican majority”.
in the General election except for Redistricting.
2004- Baron Hill(IN-9) narrowly lost his seat in 2004 but won it back in 2006- represents a red district which Bush carried with 59-40 percent in 2004.
2000- Sam Gejdenson(CT-2) was the last long time Democratic US House Member from a blue District to lose his seat to a Republican in a general election.
David Minge(MN-2 now MN-6) narrowly lost his seat in 2000- Minge represented a Red Congressional District now held by Michelle Bachmann.
1998- Jay Johnson(WI-8) was a first term Democratic Congressman from a red District now held by Steve Kagen who narrowly won that seat in 2006.
1996- Mike Ward(KY-3) was a first term Democratic congressman from a Blue District who narrowly lost his seat to Anne Northup who lost her seat in 2006 to John Yarmuth.
Harold Volkmer(MO-9) was a longtime Democratic Congressman from a Red District lost his seat to Kenny Hulshof who is running for Governor of MO this year.
Bill Orton(UT-3) was a Democratic Congressman from a reddest District of the Country lost his seat to Chris Cannon who lost his seat this year in the primary.
happy with this but I have to say I agree. This is one of the few seats where we could lose. Kanjo is a horrible campaigner.
…for anyone who knows the answer
Will “Meet the Press” be reviving its Senate debate series this year without Russert? I would be gravely disappointed if they didn’t.
Anybody have a read on who might be a strong candidate here if Kanjorski were to retire soon or (God forbid) Barlette actually wins this time. Given the Democratic nature of the district, I’d think there would be a pretty healthy Dem bench?